Standard for LSU? Transfer portal needs? Tigers mailbag (2024)

BATON ROUGE, La. — LSU football is on an absolute high. Not just because it is No. 6 in the College Football Playoff rankings and the SEC West champion, but because the future is suddenly bright and full of things to look forward to.

So you’ll notice a theme in this week’s mailbag about the future — what LSU can be, what it needs to address, etc. But these questions are so intriguing because they represent the sweet spot LSU is in. It is both ahead of schedule and in a critical moment in which how it handles the next year might play a key role in what the next 10 years become.

Let’s answer some questions.

(Note: Submitted questions have been lightly edited for clarity and length.)

On the “Football & Grits” podcast, y’all were saying how LSU has been a tier below for the last decade. That is true, but it’s also true that we have Alabama in our division going on the greatest run in the history of the sport. We don’t get to play an ACC or Big Ten schedule. The path to a title is infinitely harder.

My question is this: Once the impossible standard that Nick Saban has set at Alabama is gone, what is an acceptable standard? I believe a top tier program like LSU or Georgia or Alabama should only expect to make a final/semifinal maybe one to two times a decade. The run that Saban has had has completely thrown expectations out of whack.

LSU playing for four national titles and winning three of them in the past 20 years is an absolutely otherworldly success. — William M., San Antonio

You’re right, LSU playing for four titles and winning three over the span of 16 years is otherworldly, but what makes it such an odd, fascinating program to study is it’s done that despite never being a consistent power in the sport. That’s uncommon. And it’s why the one part I disagree with is the expectation for elite programs to make the final/semifinals only once or twice a decade. Even outside of Saban’s dynasty, there have always been teams ruling the sport for stretches. USC owned the sport in the early 2000s. Florida dominated the late 2000s. Then Alabama, but even inside of that Clemson won two titles and made the semifinals six years in a row.

ICYMI: New Football & Grits w/ @davidubben on the SEC Championship game, what's happening at Auburn with Cadillac Williams and the free fall in College Station.

Listen: https://t.co/jrhLXcd55L

— Brody Miller (@BrodyAMiller) November 15, 2022

LSU has been its own strange thing, constant and inconsistent simultaneously. After winning the 2007 title, LSU went 8-5 and 9-4. After the 2011 title appearance, LSU spent the next eight years having eight- or nine-win regular seasons. The only close comparison for LSU in this era is maybe Auburn making two title games mixed in with plenty of eight-win seasons, but LSU’s success is much greater. And yes, you’re right, that playing in the brutal West with Alabama is a major factor in that, but I also think you’d agree LSU should have been better than it was. LSU’s inconsistency is what athletic director Scott Woodward is trying to eliminate with the Brian Kelly hire.

To William’s actual question, what is a fair standard once Saban is gone? The more fair way to look at it is not just in Playoff semifinals, but overall LSU should be expected to live within the top 10 to 15 teams in the country every year. There is no tangible reason — talent, resources, competition — that LSU shouldn’t be able to at least go 9-3 every year, and 9-3 with an SEC schedule puts it around Nos. 8-12 in the country most years.

If LSU is hanging in that top-10 zone every year, it should win titles. If Kelly is able to get LSU rolling in the way some expect based off this season and the recruiting class he has coming, I think LSU should be expected to make the semifinals once every three years or so, on average. That’s not asking to be anything like Bama’s current domination. It’s asking LSU to hang in that top-10 zone and put up a good enough team to be in the top four every two to three years.

Two things make this more complicated: Texas and Oklahoma coming to the SEC and the expansion to a 12-team playoff. SEC expansion shouldn’t be a drastic change, as it’s not like LSU can’t be better than Texas and Oklahoma. It’s more, how much does adding two more blue-blood powers change the calculus in the conference? How much does that level things out, where it goes from maybe five “powers” in the SEC to seven? Maybe not at all.

The expanded CFP is, in theory, fantastic news for LSU. A 10-2 LSU in the SEC would put it in the top eight almost every year, and LSU would almost always get an at-large bid. That’s huge. Even this year, an 8-2 LSU is No. 6.

On top of all of this, the real hope at LSU is for Kelly to have LSU finally break through that ceiling and become a program that goes 11-1 most years instead of, say, 9-3. If that happens, LSU should make the semifinals most years.

I don’t think coordinator Matt House is getting enough credit (publicly) for the performance and improvement of our defense. How long can BK keep him? And what other assistants are flying under the radar? We’ve heard mention of quarterbacks coach Joe Sloan. — Fred V., Laurel, Miss.

Brian Kelly has gotten a lot of well-deserved praise for the team’s return to relevance ahead of schedule. What assistants do you think have done particularly great work? Should we worry about losing specific rising star coaches & coordinators this offseason? If that’s the price of success, so be it! — Hunter P.

Kelly has done a good job with his first staff. House probably gets and deserves the most acclaim, building LSU’s defense into a top-tier unit. More importantly, he’s shown the tactical ability to adjust and be creative to win games. His game plans against Mississippi State and Ole Miss stand out. Alabama too. And there have been multiple games in which the defense struggled at times in the first half and then made an adjustment to dominate the second half (Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Auburn). That’s coaching.

Sloan, as Fred mentions, is another. One, he’s a great recruiter and was key in getting both 2023 commit Rickie Collins and high-profile 2024 commit Colin Hurley. But Sloan has also been essential in Jayden Daniels’ development, with coaches inside the program pointing out Daniels didn’t really have a full-time QB coach at Arizona State. Now, you’re seeing him continue to get better.

Defensive line coach Jamar Cain’s group — even without its best player, Maason Smith — has been the strength of LSU’s team, with defensive tackle Mekhi Wingo turning into a breakout star on top of BJ Ojulari, Jaquelin Roy and Ali Gaye being great players. Then, Cain (and other coaches) have four top-200 defensive line commits coming in the 2023 class. That’s huge.

Offensive line coach Brad Davis’ group has been a mess for most of a decade, and Davis took over last second in summer 2021 under Ed Orgeron. Even in the second half of the 2021 season, you could see the line turning a corner. Now in the first full year with Davis, LSU has a pretty solid offensive line. And Davis is crucial in the development of freshman offensive tackles Will Campbell and Emery Jones.

I’ve heard great things about receivers coach and pass game coordinator Cortez Hankton. LSU receiver production hasn’t been some huge story, but he’s a really sharp guy and a good, tough presence for young receivers.

Fans are hard on Brian Polian for LSU’s problematic special teams, but give credit where it’s due. He’s also recruiting coordinator, and LSU has the No. 4 class in the country with a real chance to keep climbing.

So who does LSU need to worry about keeping? You never know with House. When he left Kentucky to be the Kansas City Chiefs linebackers coach, Mark Stoops implied some people don’t want the nonstop recruiting life of college football. House said he came back because he missed being a coordinator. With his success this year, would he leave to be an NFL coordinator? It’s worth watching.

Sloan is young enough at 35 to probably wait at LSU. He’s also the type who wants to be a head coach somewhere more than being desperate to jump at a Power 5 coordinator job. Maybe he’ll look around at Group of 5 head coaching jobs, but I’d bet he stays. Cain is a hot commodity, hence LSU having to steal him from USC at the last second for $850,000 a year. LSU is taking care of him, but you never know who might come trying to pry him away. Hankton interviewed for the Los Angeles Rams offensive coordinator job this past winter. He’s another guy I could see being a head coach soon.

LSU running backs coach and associate head coach Frank Wilson came to LSU after two stints as a head coach, so I doubt he’s trying to bail quickly.

What are you more surprised by: being No. 6 in the polls or having the No. 4 ranked recruiting class? — Patrick H.

I am genuinely surprised by both, so this is a fun question. I’ll say the recruiting class. Because even though I expected about eight wins this year, I also at least saw the scenario for LSU to get to 10 wins if Kelly’s presence had a big enough impact. I thought Auburn and Florida were down big (correct). I was really low on Texas A&M (ay!). And in a vacuum, LSU, even as flawed and thin as it is, is still one of the 10 most talented teams in the country.

So while it’s obviously surprising and impressive that LSU is No. 6 and 8-2, it’s not shocking. Maybe the shocking part is really the win against Alabama and winning the West.

But I didn’t know if Kelly could get LSU recruiting to this point so soon. Especially not after Arch Manning, Eli Holstein, Derek Williams and Jaiden Ausberry decided to leave the state. I thought LSU would finish around No. 8 in the country, and that would be a successful first year. But LSU went on a heater, landing national prospects on the defensive line and star in-state offensive tackles and two top-100 receivers. And considering LSU has a decent chance to land both top-50 corners Desmond Ricks and Javien Toviano, LSU could go as high as No. 2 or 3 in the country.

The recruiting success should have fans as excited as the wins, because it’s a big indicator of what perceptions about Kelly were off-base.

Do you think Arkansas set the template for how to defend Daniels effectively, or do you think his ineffective play was an aberration? It looked like Arky had all the answers and LSU wasn’t able to adjust. It seemed a really odd regression after three great games in a row. But … Vegas saw it coming somehow. … Highly suspicious! — Barret W.

Yes and no. Teams will take notes on using extra defensive backs to clog passing lanes on Daniels since he can be indecisive. And teams will learn that the best way to attack this young offensive line is with creative stunts.

But some of what Arkansas defensive coordinator Barry Odom did is probably true to Odom just being really good. It wasn’t like it was one thing. It was his ability to constantly confuse the LSU offense, combining conservative pass coverage with aggressive pass rushing. It was the ability to disguise so LSU never really knew what to expect. So it’s not as simple as teams taking a template.

Also, almost every analytic computer projection (SP+, Action Network, etc.) had LSU as roughly a three-point favorite. I don’t think it was Vegas being in on something. It was a road game against a solid SEC foe while LSU is a good but not perfect team.

So many exciting things happening now but I can’t help but think about the roster heading into next season. What positions do you see the Tigers addressing via the transfer portal? — Riley K., British Columbia, Canada

Kelly has said repeatedly that LSU will need to dip back into the portal, but he also doesn’t think it will be anything like the 15 players LSU added last cycle. Wednesday, he said, “The transfer portal is great, but it’s great if you top the tank off with it and fill in some needed positions but have the base of your program built through freshman recruiting.”

Edge rusher stands out. Ojulari will surely go pro, and after him LSU has Desmond Little and Zavier Carter as options at outside linebacker. Harold Perkins is a superstar off the edge, but he’s not an on-the-line standup edge like Ojulari. LSU will likely need reinforcements. That’s just difficult because if a team has a great edge, it keeps him. The best chance is to find a situation similar to Jared Verse making the leap from Albany to Florida State, but that comes with its own risks.

LSU did an incredible job bolstering its defensive backfield this offseason, adding six corners and safeties who are all playing key roles. LSU has a good corner class coming in, but it’s going to be young and inexperienced. I’d guess LSU adds at least one corner and one safety through the portal.

Tight end will always be one to watch with LSU’s weak depth there, but maybe the development of Mason Taylor puts that at ease. Maybe LSU would like another inside linebacker after Micah Baskerville and Mike Jones leave, but they’re also deep there with Greg Penn, DeMario Tolan, West Weeks, Kolbe Fields and likely Perkins going back to that spot.

Who would finish second to Perkins in an LSU football Hunger Games? — Ryan G., New Orleans

Perkins really would dominate. Not just because he is such an athletic freak, but because he has a bit of a quiet killer element to him. He’s not a huge talker. He could hide and lurk and attack.

My second place might go to Campbell. Give me the 6-foot-6, 325-pound athletic North Louisiana son of a farmer named Bull. My man can hunt. He can probably live off the land. And he’s got some nasty in him.

I believe NIL will be the doom of college football as we know it. The cracks are evident at Bama and Texas A&M. Too many people mad that the guy they line up against is making money and they are not. I think it’s a locker room cancer. What say you? — Rob C.

I am pretty sure you, Rob, work at a job where you are paid X amount of money. And I’m sure there are some people who make less and some who make more. I imagine you all coexist just fine.

Every professional sports team has some players making tens of millions a year and some who make the league minimum. It’s just a part of life. I don’t deny it’s going to change college football forever, and yeah I bet we will see programs that pay like crazy for elite rosters have some issues. And I also bet sometimes those elite rosters will dominate. I will be interested to see what the “Moneyball”-esque zag is. Will some programs spend less but have better cultures?

Really, it’s all just a matter of how good you are at running a program. An NBA coach fails if he can’t manage the personalities on his roster, and Phil Jackson is one of the best ever because he manages those personalities beautifully.

I got a question for you! How am I going to count these stacks of 100’s with this giant ring on my finger? — Coach O.

Have a good one, y’all.