Why are investors selling government bonds?
Investors trade bonds for a number of reasons, with the key two being—profit and protection. Investors can profit by trading bonds to pick up yield (trading up to a higher-yielding bond) or benefit from a credit upgrade (bond price increases following an upgrade).
The government funds its operations by selling the world's safest bonds to investors and dealers at regular auctions. And issuance of Treasurys has exploded since the pandemic began. In the first three months of 2024, the U.S. sold $7.2 trillion of debt, the largest quarterly total on record.
However, by selling bonds after they have risen in price – and before maturity – investors can realize price appreciation, also known as capital appreciation, on bonds. Capturing the capital appreciation on bonds increases their total return, which is the combination of income and capital appreciation.
Bonds, like Treasurys, can generate income, usually have more modest returns, and can help balance out the volatility of stocks. Bonds are a common asset in a well-diversified portfolio. But keep in mind, bonds are risk-free when held to maturity.
Why did the Treasury bond market crash in 2022 and 2023? Interest rates and the price of bonds have an inverse relationship. As interest rates go up, the market value (price) of bonds declines. When the Federal Reserve raises the federal funds rate, it can cause the bond market to crash.
Interest Rate Risk
Just as prices can rise in an economy, so too can interest rates. As a result, Treasury bonds are exposed to interest rate risk. If interest rates are rising in an economy, the existing T-bond and its fixed interest rate may underperform newly issued bonds, which would pay a higher interest rate.
Face Value | Purchase Amount | 20-Year Value (Purchased May 2000) |
---|---|---|
$50 Bond | $100 | $109.52 |
$100 Bond | $200 | $219.04 |
$500 Bond | $400 | $547.60 |
$1,000 Bond | $800 | $1,095.20 |
Key Takeaways
Most bonds pay a fixed interest rate that becomes more attractive if interest rates fall, driving up demand and the price of the bond. Conversely, if interest rates rise, investors will no longer prefer the lower fixed interest rate paid by a bond, resulting in a decline in its price.
After 20 years, the issuer of the bond pays you $10,000. For this reason, zero coupon bonds are often purchased to meet a future expense such as college costs or an anticipated expenditure in retirement. Federal agencies, municipalities, financial institutions and corporations issue zero coupon bonds.
In general, when interest rates go down, bond prices go up. If this happens, you can make money by selling your bond before it matures. You'll get more than you paid for it, and you'll keep the interest you've made up until the time you sell it.
What happens if no one buys government bonds?
Entities with extra cash buy treasury bonds. When no one buys them anymore, we will reduce the national debt. US treasuries are purchased by any individual or organization that needs a default risk-free investment.
But while they are lauded for their security and reliability, potential drawbacks such as interest rate risk, low returns and inflation risk must be carefully considered. If you're interested in investing in Treasury bonds or have other questions about your portfolio, consider speaking with a financial advisor.
Individuals, organizations, fiduciaries, and corporate investors may buy Treasury securities through a bank, broker, or dealer.
Stocks and bonds deliver positive returns and cash underperforms both as the Fed pivots to rate cuts. Stocks and bonds may both be poised for success in 2024. Easing inflation and a pivoting Fed should reduce headwinds that have faced both asset classes in recent years.
Vanguard's active fixed income team believes emerging markets (EM) bonds could outperform much of the rest of the fixed income market in 2024 because of the likelihood of declining global interest rates, the current yield premium over U.S. investment-grade bonds, and a longer duration profile than U.S. high yield.
Short-term bond yields are high currently, but with the Federal Reserve poised to cut interest rates investors may want to consider longer-term bonds or bond funds. High-quality bond investments remain attractive.
It's always possible to lose money when investing, but the chance of that happening with a government bond is close to zero. The U.S. government has an excellent history of repaying its debts, so you can count on your investment being safe.
Taxes: Treasuries can offer tax benefits that CDs do not.
If investing in a tax-sheltered account, like an individual retirement account (IRA) or a 401(k), the tax benefits that Treasuries provide disappear, because earnings in these types of accounts are not subject to income taxes.
Treasury securities like T-bills and T-notes are very low-risk as they're issued and backed by the U.S. government. They provide a safe way to earn a return, albeit generally lower than aggressive investments.
Series EE savings bonds are a low-risk way to save money. They earn interest regularly for 30 years (or until you cash them if you do that before 30 years). For EE bonds you buy now, we guarantee that the bond will double in value in 20 years, even if we have to add money at 20 years to make that happen.
What is a $1000 savings bond worth?
Total Price | Total Value | YTD Interest |
---|---|---|
$1,000.00 | $2,094.00 | $89.60 |
They're available to be cashed in after a single year, though there's a penalty for cashing them in within the first five years. Otherwise, you can keep savings bonds until they fully mature, which is generally 30 years. These days, you can only purchase electronic bonds, but you can still cash in paper bonds.
However, you can also buy and sell bonds on the secondary market. After bonds are initially issued, their worth will fluctuate like a stock's would. If you're holding the bond to maturity, the fluctuations won't matter—your interest payments and face value won't change.
Should I only buy bonds when interest rates are high? There are advantages to purchasing bonds after interest rates have risen. Along with generating a larger income stream, such bonds may be subject to less interest rate risk, as there may be a reduced chance of rates moving significantly higher from current levels.
one key risk to a bondholder is that the company may fail to make timely payments of interest or principal. If that happens, the company will default on its bonds. this “default risk” makes the creditworthiness of the company—that is, its ability to pay its debt obligations on time—an important concern to bondholders.
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