On May 7, the Tamil Nadu govt headed by chief minister M K Stalin completed three years in office.
Politically, however, it would be stepping into the fourth year only after June 4 when the
general election results
show who would form the govt at Centre. Opinion polls have differed only on numbers while giving NDA a virtually unassailable lead. If the miracle INDIA dream fails to materialise, Narendra Modi will be back as Prime Minister.
And there would begin Stalin’s strenuous fourth year as chief minister.
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In a five-year tenure, the first year is any govt’s honeymoon period. In the second, it wakes up to fiscal realities, and in the third, it struggles to fulfil the election promises the party had made. This is also the time when the govt is likely to introduce some unpopular measures to shore up revenues that its populism had started draining (Stalin’s first finance minister Palanivel Thiaga Rajan was prudent enough to prescribe – and administer – some “bitter pills” by increasing power tariff, property tax, motor vehicle tax and liquor price). Into the fourth year, party workers, realising that time is running out, demand their pound of flesh before the next election. This is also the time when the govt is more likely to face allegations as the opposition ups its game. In the fifth year, the govt can ill afford to take harsh fiscal measures. The result: Frugal means and frightful expectations. The Stalin govt is getting into this phase.
TOI on May 10 analysed how Tamil Nadu has been smarting under a fund crunch as the Union govt has been holding back financial allocations including those for flood relief and the central share for the second phase of Chennai Metro Rail. Stalin used this victim card quite efficiently during the general election campaign.
It complemented his image of being the lead fighter against the saffron brigade. In a way, BJP, while denying any step-motherly treatment to states where opposition parties run govts, has been not-so-subtly driving home the message that being friendly with Centre pays for state.
Powering BJP’s campaign cavalcade in Uttar Pradesh was its ‘double engine’ theory. The message: With BJP at Centre, having a BJP govt in your state ensures rapid growth. It’s another matter that UP’s health, human development and economic indices are much inferior to TN’s. UP, with a GSDP of close to 24 lakh crore has a growth rate of 5. 8%, while TN with a GSDP of more than 28 lakh crore grows at 14. 6%.
Here are some other random comparisons: Infant mortality rate (deaths per 1,000 live births) in UP is 38 (the national average is 28. 7); in TN it is 8. 2. Maternal mortality rate (per one lakh live births):UP — 130, TN — 90. Literacy rate: UP — 68%, TN — 80%). Politics is a game of perceptions, but these facts prove that while it is desirable for a state to have a good rapport with the Union govt, Centre cannot afford to stymie the organic growth of a state. If it does, it would be detrimental not just for the state, but for the nation as a whole (TN contributes close to 9% of India’s GDP).
Nevertheless, the BJP is bound to propound the double-engine theory in all opposition states as well when they have assembly elections. It remains to be seen what AIADMK and BJP learn from their separation. Whether they reunite or remain at loggerheads, Stalin has his job cut out to prove that Tamil Nadu has not just the resolve, but also the means, to continue its march towards the trillion-dollar dream irrespective of who presides over the Union govt. And let’s not forget that the 2026 match will have not just the usual players, but a debutant who says, “I’m waiting”. — arun. ram@timesgroup. com
