Should I lock in a mortgage rate today?
Locking in early can help you get what you were budgeting for from the start. As long as you close before your rate lock expires, any increase in rates won't affect you. The ideal time to lock your mortgage rate is when interest rates are at their lowest, but this is hard to predict — even for the experts.
Locking in early can help you get what you were budgeting for from the start. As long as you close before your rate lock expires, any increase in rates won't affect you. The ideal time to lock your mortgage rate is when interest rates are at their lowest, but this is hard to predict — even for the experts.
If interest rates go up after you've locked in your rate, you get to keep the lower rate. On the other hand, if you lock your rate and interest rates fall, you can't take advantage of the lower rate unless your rate lock includes a float-down option.
Locking in now could mean you're stuck with a high home loan interest rate for years to come, and your mortgage repayment will increase monthly. Important: If you do decide to fix your loan, it should only be for two years maximum since home loan rates are expected to go down in 2024 and 2025.
After hitting record-low territory in 2020 and 2021, mortgage rates climbed to a 23-year high in 2023. Many experts and industry authorities believe they will follow a downward trajectory into 2024.
Mortgage interest rates can change daily, sometimes hourly. If your interest rate is locked, your rate won't change between when you get the rate lock and closing, as long as you close within the specified time frame and there are no changes to your application.
Most major forecasts expect rates to go down throughout 2024.
Instead, we'll probably see some gradual 25-basis-point cuts here and there. If that happens, rates could fall to closer to 6% by the end of 2024. Channel expects rates to remain high compared to the levels seen during the height of the pandemic, when average 30-year mortgage rates were around 2.65%.
A “good” mortgage rate is different for everyone. In today's market, a good mortgage interest rate can fall in the mid-6% range, depending on several factors, such as the type of mortgage, loan term, and individual financial circ*mstances.
Product | Interest rate | APR |
---|---|---|
30-year fixed-rate | 6.859% | 6.939% |
20-year fixed-rate | 6.739% | 6.840% |
15-year fixed-rate | 6.043% | 6.175% |
10-year fixed-rate | 6.094% | 6.328% |
Should I go fixed or variable in 2023?
If you think interest rates will rise again, you're better off fixing your rate now to lock it in at the lower rate. If you think they'll fall, you may want to stay variable. It's worth noting that fixed rate loans tend to rise during periods of low interest rates.
Inflation and Fed hikes have pushed mortgage rates up to a 20-year high. 30-year mortgage rates are currently expected to fall to somewhere between 5.9% and 6.1% in 2024. Instead of waiting for rates to drop, homebuyers should consider buying now and refinancing later to avoid increased competition next year.
Interest rates are rising
If interest rates are on the rise, it may be a good time to switch to a fixed rate mortgage. With a fixed rate mortgage, your interest rate will remain the same for the entire loan term, even if interest rates continue to rise.
In summary, it is unlikely that mortgage rates in the US will ever reach 3% again, at least not in the foreseeable future. This is due to a combination of factors, including: Higher Inflation: Inflation is currently at a 40-year high in the US, and the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates to combat it.
The National Association of Realtors estimates rates will average 6.3 percent for the full year. Still, mortgage rates aren't easy to predict. “A lot of us forecasted we'd be down to 6 percent at the end of 2023,” says Sturtevant.
This would allow mortgage interest rates to fall to a predicted 5.5% by the end of 2023, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Some economists believe that rates could end in the high 5% by the end of 2023, according to experts from Fannie Mae.
Rate lock extension fees vary based on the lender and loan terms. Typically, the fee is a percentage of the loan amount or a set fee per day or week of the extension, ranging from around 0.25% to 0.375% of the loan amount.
When interest rates drop, consider refinancing to shorten the term of your mortgage and pay significantly less in interest payments. Switching to a fixed-rate mortgage—or to an adjustable-rate one—can make sense depending on the rates and how long you plan to remain in your current home.
A mortgage rate lock isn't free. Even when there's no official fee listed on your closing costs breakdown, the lender will factor it into the rate you're receiving. Typically, you can expect to pay somewhere between 0.25% and 0.50% of your loan to lock in your rate.
The National Association of Realtors expects mortgage rates will average 6.8% in the first quarter of 2024, dropping to 6.6% in the second quarter, according to its latest Quarterly U.S. Economic Forecast. The trade association predicts that rates will continue to fall to 6.1% by the end of the year.
How low will mortgage rates drop in 2024?
Source | Projected 30-year mortgage rate (by end of 2024) |
---|---|
Mortgage Bankers Association | 6.1% |
Fannie Mae | 5.8% |
Realtor.com | 6.5% |
Redfin | 6.6% |
Mortgage rates will decrease in 2024, and buyers will pay fewer discount points. By summer, first-time home buyers should expect current mortgage rates near 4.25 percent.
Legally speaking, there's no limit to how many times you can refinance your mortgage, so you can refinance as often as it makes financial sense for you. Depending on your lender and the type of loan, though, you might encounter a waiting period — also called a seasoning requirement.
Projected Interest Rates in the Next Five Years
ING's interest rate predictions indicate 2024 rates starting at 4%, with subsequent cuts to 3.75% in the second quarter. Then, 3.5% in the third, and 3.25% in the final quarter of 2024. In 2025, ING predicts a further decline to 3%.
If all goes well, by the time 2025 comes around, we could see mortgage rates closer to 6%, or maybe even lower.
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